Predictions 2019: GDP, inflation, Sensex, bond yields and gold

Umang Papneja, Senior Managing Partner, IIFL Investment Managers

Certain sectors could see an earnings turnaround, leading to higher earnings growth than the last 2-3 years. Large-cap valuations are still rich, hence EPS growth may not translate into equity price returns. This will restrict upside on the index. The US Fed has signalled a potential end to rate hikes; RBI too may signal rate cuts in CY 2019. 10-year G-sec yield could reach 7% levels but AAA corporate bond yields may get compressed.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.00%

CPI inflation (2019): 4.50%

10-year government security yield: 7.00%

Sensex: 39,000

Gold price (₹ per 10 gm): 33,000

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